Pakistan will miss growth target set for the current 
financial year, the fifth consecutive year, and the sluggish pace of 
economy will continue for at least two more years, according to a World 
Bank report, indicating a rise in unemployment.
The Global Economic Prospects Report 2013, released on Wednesday, 
says Pakistan’s economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3.8%, half 
percentage point below the target of 4.3% set for fiscal year 2012-13 
ending June 30.
The report comes at a time when Pakistan is readjusting its 
macroeconomic framework during ongoing talks with the International 
Monetary Fund to pave the way for a fresh bailout programme. Both sides 
have already wrapped up technical-level talks and are gearing up for 
policy dialogue.
The World Bank says growth in Pakistan, the second largest economy in
 South Asia, remained broadly stable if compared with last year’s growth
 of 3.7%. However, the country is clubbed with Nepal that is projected 
to grow 3.8%. Even Sri Lanka at 6.1% and Bangladesh at 5.8% are 
projected to hit growth rates far higher than that in Pakistan.
Various studies, both independent and official, suggest that Pakistan
 requires 7 to 8% annual growth to create jobs for the bulk of youth. In
 the last five years, the country has posted sluggish growth, leaving 
hundreds of thousands jobless every year.
The World Bank also projects sluggish growth for the next two years. 
According to the report, there will be lacklustre growth in financial 
years 2013-14 and 2014-15 at 4% and 4.2% respectively.
The bank says though industrial activity has started picking up, 
inadequate supply of electricity and gas for firms with captive power 
plants continues to hobble the industrial sector.
It fears that the pick-up in exports in the first five months of this
 fiscal year on the back of increase in exports of garments and 
processed cotton products may not continue in the remaining part of the 
year. Electricity shortages during the second half of December have 
already adversely affected textile production and may dampen export 
growth in subsequent months, it says.
On the fiscal front, the bank again paints a dismal picture. Against 
the government’s target of 4.7%, the budget deficit is expected to be 
over 6%, a projection which is in line with the IMF forecast.
For the last five years, economic managers have been understating 
expenditures and overstating revenues to show the budget deficit below 
actual levels, experts say.
According to a finance ministry official, the government has now 
presented a revised budget deficit figure of 5.6% to the IMF, largely 
because of a shortfall in revenues. Compared to the annual revenue 
target of Rs2.381 trillion, the government now expects to collect 
Rs2.231 trillion, a shortfall of Rs150 billion or roughly 0.7% of gross 
domestic product.